Waianae Coast

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows 70 to 79. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Shore / Honolulu

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers until late afternoon. Highs 83 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Honolulu

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Ewa Plain

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 72 to 78. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers until late afternoon. Highs 83 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows 69 to 76. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Central Oahu

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 69 to 75. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Windward Oahu

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 79. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers until late afternoon, then scattered showers late in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Koolau Leeward

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers until late afternoon, then scattered showers late in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trades deliver showers windward and mauka through the weekend.

Discussion

Little change for the next several days as moderate trades deliver showers windward and mauka into next week. Upper air pattern remains blocky with a closed upper low positioned northwest of Kauai and downstream ridging established over and east of the remainder of the state. As the upper low is drawn northward and absorbed into the westerlies, heights gradually rebound over the islands topping out around 591dm at 500mb by this weekend. Attendant subsidence will reinforce high stability during this time. Brief veering of flow through the lowest 10kft of the atmosphere as this adjustment occurs potentially sets the stage for showers to develop within the convergent leeward Molokai plume and extend over portions of Leeward Oahu this afternoon into this evening. High stability will limit potential for vertical shower development and should keep shower intensity in check, but some enhanced coverage of showers compared to normal will be possible.

Aviation

Moderate trades expected through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily impact windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai, Oahu Maui and the Big Island. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.

Marine

High pressure far north of the islands will maintain a trade wind pattern, however as the high has weakened and lifted away from the islands, trade winds are not quite as strong. Winds across the coastal waters remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds could rebound Thursday into the weekend as the high sinks southward, tightening the pressure gradient over the islands and bringing Small Craft Advisory winds back to the typical windy waters.
A small bump in the otherwise fading medium-period southwest swell (around 2.5 ft with a 13 second period) should bring a slight increase in south surf today, particularly this morning. The southwest will return to a gradually decline by tonight and continue through the rest of the week. A series of overlapping small south and southwest swells will maintain small south shore surf, with a larger south swell expected early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will be slightly below seasonal averages through Thursday with lighter trade winds. Surf may then climb back up somewhat as trades strengthen through the weekend.
A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible throughout the rest of the week. Otherwise, no significant north or northwest swells are expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov